Communication and Perception of Uncertainty: Implications for Informing the Public. Brenda J. Nordenstam, SUNY-College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210
This paper addresses problems associated with communicating uncertainty in risk estimates to the public. Recently, there has been an increasing demand to incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis into the risk assessment process, however, it is unclear how this information will be effectively communicated to the lay person unfamiliar with the methodology used to incorporate uncertainty into model predictions. Public acceptance of risk-based decisions for environmental management may partly depend on the ability of the lay person to accept the utilization of uncertainty analysis in the decision making process. The results of a preliminary study examining the effectiveness of different methods of communicating the outcome of an uncertainty analysis is presented. The study also examines variations in the presentation of uncertainty with subject variation in perceived risk, trust, and fairness of the hypothetical decision-making process. The implications of these findings in regard to public perception and acceptance of the incorporation of uncertainty analysis into risk-based decisions is discussed.