The Analysis of Risks Related to the Realization of the Schemes of Regional Programme Financing (an Example--the State Programme of Lower Angara Development). T. N. Yesikova, Chairman of Novosibirsk SRA Group, V. Yu Malov, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of Russia (SB ASR)
Now, in Russia, risks management, financial risks constitute a focal point of interest for many participants of the state regional programme. All participants are tuned to avoid danger, to achieve economical and financial security. The realization of the state regional programme must be concerned risks for individuals to public and private sector organizations, and to society at a local, regional, and national level. That is the risk for the Administration of Lower Angara Programme, regarding interests of their participants. The first step of this risk analysis is the estimation of influences of different schemes of financing on the achievement of programme goals and tasks. The State programme of Lower Angara development has been elaborate and has been carried out following investigations for risk analysis: expert estimation of all investment suggestions from the point of view of reliabilities; the generating and formation of possible (alternative) variants of scheme of financing for main programme objects; the determination of resulting valuation of reliabilities for all variants of schemes of financing and its comparison from this criteria; the choice of only those schemes of financing, which are characterized as most reliable from the Administration (Russia, region and population) view point; the estimation and differentiation of the chosen schemes of financing in accord with the level of satisfaction of participant's interests (Russia, region, population); the choice of those variants of schemes, which are appropriate to permissible level of satisfaction of the participants' interests; the determination of values of risk regarding to the realization of schemes of financing with changeabilities of the financial markets. For the risk analysis (related to the realization of the schemes of regional programme financing) we take into account a real consequences of financial unstability, which may occur during fulfillment of the programme (investor's refusal for political reasons; insolvency of firms and so on). Our investigations are based on Petry Nets and imitations models of regional development.