Comparing Different Approaches to Risk Assessment Modeling: Problems and Opportunities. John P. Weyant, Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305-1050
This talk outlines some of the problems and opportunities that emerge in comparing different approaches to specific risk assessment problems. Examples of key differences include different baseline assumptions, different specifications of uncertain variables (including the choice of variables about which uncertainty is considered and how uncertainty about them is represented), different end points for the analysis, and different model structures (e.g., optimization versus simulation formulations). These observations are illustrated with examples from the analysis of global climate change policies. Although the differences in approaches can be difficult to reconcile, the comparison process seems a necessary prerequisite for improved understanding of the underlying problems and their proposed solutions.