Cybernetic Risk Analysis. Kevin Foster, Consultel Australia Pty Ltd., PO Box 110, Yarralumla A.C.T. 2900, Australia
Risk analysis failure is an inability to predict the potential or actual behaviour of an entity or the likely occurrence of a random event. It is a cognitive failure which can occur due to a multitude of factors. Politico-cultural biases will determine what data should be collected, how it should be interpreted, and what action should be taken. The risk-image is compared with a datum reference perception of acceptable risk. The difference between the acceptable risk and the risk-image may be amplified socially and by various overt and implicit actions or decisions. These amplifications, or gain, will affect the operational and future environments. There will also be other disturbances which may affect the environments. The dominant cosmology of the risk decision-maker will determine the importance of organisation design, complexity, lead times, lag times, the data load on the system, and the degree of gain introduced into the operational environment. Risk analysis failure and surprise may follow a systemic increase in disordered data (entropy) or a systemic increase in noise. These themes concerning organisational risk analysis and socio-political cultures are explored in this paper using a case study--Pearl Harbor in 1941.