Characterizing Human Health Risk Due to Salmonella Enteritidis--Contaminated Shell Eggs. R. A. Morales, L. A. Jaykus and P. Cowen, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Department of Food Science, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh NC 27695-8109
Since 1979, Salmonellosis has ranked fourth on CDC’s list of notifiable diseases. Salmonella enteritidis now accounts for over 25% of isolates from human cases, a marked increase from its 1976 isolation rate of 5%. Furthermore, 79% of Salmonella enteritidis outbreaks with an identified food vehicle are egg-associated. Economic analysis and risk assessment are integral to optimal development of food safety and quality assurance programs as they provide information for objective decision-making and policy development. An initial risk assessment, based on published literature, is used to establish baseline risk levels as well as to identify data gaps. Within the framework of probabilistic scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation methods, estimates are presented for the traditional dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization components of a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate potential human health risk due to consumption of Salmonella enteritidis-contaminated shell eggs. Emphasis will be placed on development of models for growth of Salmonella enteritidis in raw shell eggs under various time and temperature conditions, and the comparison of alternative functional forms for human health response to shell egg-associated exposure to Salmonella enteritidis. Proposed methods for evaluating cost-effective HACCP-based interventions for risk mitigation will be briefly outlined.