Application of Computer-State Observers and Optimum Modal Control Algorithms for Integrated Risk Assessment and Management in Industrial Areas of Russia. V. A. Eremenko, RTC "Systems Analysis," Russian Research Center "Kurchatov Institute," Kurchatov plosch.1, 123182 Moscow, RF
The analysis, conducted recently, has shown, what in the basis of activity of most of industrial territorial management bodies, which secure the ecological safety of population and environment of Russia, the concept of "a Rational Manager or a Rational Decision Maker - RDM" is so far retained. The idea of the RDM assumes, that, if a state of an environment and risk for health of the population are estimated and interpreted duly, the correct decision will be made by the DM almost automatically. However facts from the contemporary daily practice testify just contrary. Firstly, it is very far from requested with authentic assessment and interpretation of data. Secondly, the decisions, made on the basis of "common sense," frequently not only are inefficient on results of, but rather extravagant from the economic point of view, or impracticable as a whole. The meanwhile, Russia and other countries of former Soviet Union (hereafter FSU) come in a period of "divergent scissors," when the cost of measures for safety and cleaning of territories steadily grows (accordingly grows and price of a failure from the RDM concept), but the economic opportunities for their realization in FSU are reducing. As a consequence, the problem of optimization of the managing structures and decisions in territorial and industrial management bodies was delivered. The task is equivalent by a search of sources of additional resources for continuation of work for minimization of risks in new economical conditions. We believe, what the solution of the problem could be find in replacement of the RDM concept on a more objective idea, based on the modern scientific knowledge, and utilizing of such methods and means, which in the majority were approved in others fields of practical applications. In essence very important, what would chosen of a suitable structure and organization of the risk management during this replacement. One of the known principles of cybernetics (W.Ross Ashby) asserts, that the managing system cannot be simple on a complex object. Otherwise, she will in fact to profane achievement of the delivered purpose. That the "object," which is discussing here, really complex, doubts does not arise. However, until recently a degree or a category of this complexity was not fixed by formal methods. By us such measure is found, and it is the dimension of the vector of state variables (provided that the mathematical model of the object in question is expressed by linear differential equations on the stochastic basis). Proved, the gist of transfer of a DM to scientific organization of management, which will be adequate with complexity of the object, will consist in replacement the RDM concept by structures and algorithms from the field of the Applied Theory of the Optimal and Modal Control and Observation, and means for the algorithms preparations will be computer-aided systems. Application of such computer-aided observers of states of industrial areas in Russia, developed on base, for example, systems MEPAS and RASCAL (created in the DOE PNL, US), will allow us to build the first half of a complex of an effective system for distributed control, assessment and interpretation of data on dangerous industries, transport, state of territories and risks for close located population. The last will prepare base for development of the second part of computer-aided managers -- advisers, which by virtue of an objective logic of change of the out-of-date RDM concept on the concept of computer-aided engineerings, will use methods and algorithms of the optimization and modal control for drawing up of the recommendations for making of the really rational administrative decisions in the spheres of industrial safety, and reduction of risks for environment and for health of population in complex industrial areas.
Work supported by the Ministry RF on Atomic Energy.