Summary of Meeting Paper

The 1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe

Quality and Risk. Eduardas Davidavicius and Asta Cesuniene, Institute of Chemistry, Lithuania

Quality effects every aspect of an organization. For a product to be successful, the insurance of quality requires comprehensive systems. Production is the process of converting the resources available in an organization into products and services. The collection of all interrelated activities and operations involved in producing products and service is called a production system Three major areas of quality are critical to any production system: product development, the production process and product use. Product development and product use are customer-oriented activities. One of the most important constituent parts of quality is environment and it's management.

Environmental quality management system serves as a basic for sustainable development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs. This definition of sustainable development is exclusive, because the maximum of consumption that individual can expect to maintain while keeping the initial level of wealth intact depend on this expectation of future prices and interest rates.

The environmental resources serving as inputs are valued in themselves, is the result, not the means, that must be sustained. This implies avoiding pollution of water, air and land on which our live and our work depends.

If society is to function in a sustainable long manner, product must be designed from their initiation that they contain as little material and consume as few resources as possible in their manufacture and use.

Quality is complicated system that can be investigated as a complex of mutually connected subsystems of standardization, metrology, certification and accreditation.

One of the most important factors in the field of quality is standards. The quality policy of ISO is carried out by technical committee of standardization ISO TC 176 "Quality Management and Assurance". The main ment of the committee's work are ISO standards of series 9000 -- the quality management standards.

ISO 9000 focuses on the process which a product in manufactured or service provided'. It says nothing about product or service itself It is entirely possible for a product to be poorly designed, shoddy or even dangerous or for a service to be entirely useless but still be ISO 9000 registered.

The area's quality includes environment and safety. In carrying on the approach to the revision of international standards ISO 9000 it needs establishing risk management. Risk management will be accomplished by combining already existing methods of ISO 9000 (Quality management), ISO 14000 (Environmental management) and methods for risk analysis.2

Every product has some effect on the environment during its manufacture, distribution, use or disposal. These effects may be range from slight to significant: they may be short-term or long term, and they may occur at the global, regional or local level.

Requirements in product standards may influence significantly the extent of these environmental effects. Despite the difficulties involved, a product's environmental effect should be considered when product standards are developed.

For inclusion of environmental aspects in product standards is recommend the use of life cycle thinking and recognized scientific methodologies.3 Attempts to address a given environmental effects may have consequences at any or all of the stages of a product's life cycle.

The process of anticipating or identifying a product's environmental effect's is complex and includes: product concept, product design, product life cycle, improvement strategies and environmental impacts.

A product's environmental effects should be balanced against other factors, including product function, performance, safety and health, cost, marketability. In developing product standards it is important to recognize how products can affect the environment at different stages of their life cycle.

A product's environmental effects are largely determined by the inputs that are used and the outputs that are generated at all stages of the products life cycle. Changing any single input, either to alter the materials and used or to influence a single output may effect other inputs and outputs. Figure 1 illustrates the conseptional relationship between provision in product standards and the environmental effects associated with products during it's life cycle.

Figure 1. Relationship between products standards and environmental aspects.


The environmental management includes three methodologies -- risk assessment, risk communication (teaching and information) and risk management. The growing demands for chemical products in industry, agriculture and private life make a problem of risk management, prevention and reduction very urgent. Means for technological risk estimation are among the most debatable ones. There are three main methods to solve this problem, viz.: synthetic (complex) method, quantitative method and subjective method.

The risk estimation theory proposed by Americans may serve as an example of synthetic method.4 The theory is based on risk establishing and evaluation (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Risk analysis.


The prime objective of such an analysis to determine the limiting permissible risk in certain potential spheres of it (in energetic, chemical objects, etc.). Risk degrees may be: I- Too high; II-High; III- Inactive - normal.

Combinations of various methods are propose to be used in analysis of each risk level.

The Quantitative methods of risk estimation is based on the requirements imposed upon technical standards, over which the risk degree is undesirable. The balance between the expenses intended for the lessening of risk possible impacts of the risk estimated in this case.

The Subjective risk estimation is mostly based on the works performed by specialists in the humanities, viz.: sociologists and psychologists. To their mind, the estimation of life of a human being in terms of money is not right from the ethical point of view.

To our mind, all methods of risk estimation, involving technical, economical and ethical ones, may be used and have success.

The world practice shows that the risk problems are most urgent energetic and chemical industry.

The average price of an accident in chemical industry ranges from 30 to 50 millions USD. The average cost of an accident in oil refining pipe-lines is over 100 millions USD. The accidents at plants of chemical industry and energetic were accompanied by fires and explosions. In consequence of this, there were great human sacrifices, contamination of the atmosphere and waters. Corrosion of pipe-lines, tankage and that of equipment is one of essential reasons for such accidents.

It can be seen that environmental control and safety are indispensable elements in investigations of quality. A system of risk estimation should therefore be taken into account when revising the standards of ISO 9000 and ISO 14000.

In the last couple of years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has begun to require ecological risk assessment. EPA has provided agency-wide guidance for performing human health risk assessment since 1986 and provides detailed guidance for risk assessments.5,6,7

The general risk assessment paradigm presented by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and adopted by U.S. agencies is generally applicable to ecological risk assessments (Figure 3.).

Figure 3. Diagram the conventional risk assessment paradigm.


The problems of quality and risk are very urgent in Lithuania. They involve integration into ES and its market in the first place. In second place, the elements of higher risk present at the territory of Lithuania are also very important to both Lithuania and all the European region. They involve the developed gas network, oil processing industry, oil pipe-lines, the atomic power plant and giant plants of chemical industry.

Lithuania needs very much experience and help of West Countries to evaluate the quality and lessen the risk Presently, provision is made for work in the field of risk corrosion in energetic and chemical industry of Lithuania. It would include monitoring as well as investigation of international, European and national standards in this field.

References

  1. International Standards ISO 9000-9003.

  2. International Standards ISO 14000.

  3. ISO/CD 14060 Guide for inclusion of environmental aspects in product standards.

  4. Society, technology and risk assessment. L., 1980. XXVII. p. 4

  5. The Risk Assessment Guidelines of 1986; Office of Health and Environmental Assessment.

  6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Washington, DC, 1987; EPA/600/8-87/045.

  7. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, Vol. I: Human Health Evaluation Manual; Office of Emergency and Remedial Response. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Washington, DC, 1989; OSWER Directive 9285.7-01 a.

  8. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, Vol. II: Environmental Evaluation Manual, Interim Final; Office of Emergency and Remedial Response. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Washington, DC, 1989; EPA/540/1-89/001.

  9. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process; National Academy Press- National Research Council; Washington, DC, 1981.