Abstract of Meeting Paper

The 1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe

New Methods of Risk Assessment for Insurance Strategy: Ukrainian Case. Dr. Naoum Borodianskii, Kiev International Solomon University, Ukraine, 252032 Kiev, street Saksaganskogo 112, 4

A significant part of the European territory is in the stage of dramatic economic transmission. The new market economies in Europe are facing with growing demand for insurance services.- The main aim of this article is the development of environmental insurance standards in the Ukrainian case. For this purpose we consider some insurance risk-related models used in Ukraine. The insurance companies are using the common approach to maximise their expected utilities. Their expectations are based on the Ukrainian - related sample data and statistical criteria. The utility functions commonly used depend on regular income, accidental losses, fees for insurance, risk premium and risk aversion measures. We suggest that the particularities of the transition economy, especially the mixture of market and central planning mechanisms, imply on the utility function arguments and so the arguments mentioned are values with high uncertainty levels. It means that the corresponding utility has a large standard deviation, that means in terms of financial analysis that risk increases. We call that sort of risk deviation-related risk and distinguish utility - related risk aversion measure. That is why we state that risk in transition economies has two different images. Thus we consider both classes of risk while analysing the sample data and identifying the business behaviour. This requires a new approach to insurance problems solution. We introduce a new mathematical methodology which allows to consider risk characterisation problem for both classes of risk as pattern recognition problem. We suggest two-stage approach for the solution of this problem. On the first stage the statistical pattern recognition problem is formulated. A new pattern recognition method for identifying deviation-related and utility - related classes of risk is introduced. On the second stage we analyse the problem of expected utility maximisation. The solution of the original insurance problem coincides with the solution of this stochastic optimisation problem. In the Ukrainian case the approach suggested provides a new mathematical basis for economical analysis in the sphere of national insurance regulatory policy, rationalisation of the environmental standards system and compatibility with the western one.