New Methods of Risk Assessment for Insurance Strategy: Ukrainian Case. Dr. Naoum Borodianskii, Kiev International Solomon University, Ukraine, 252032 Kiev, street Saksaganskogo 112, 4
A significant part of the European territory
is in the stage of dramatic economic transmission. The new market
economies in Europe are facing with growing demand for insurance
services.- The main aim of this article is the development of
environmental insurance standards in the Ukrainian case. For
this purpose we consider some insurance risk-related models used
in Ukraine. The insurance companies are using the common approach
to maximise their expected utilities. Their expectations are
based on the Ukrainian - related sample data and statistical criteria.
The utility functions commonly used depend on regular income,
accidental losses, fees for insurance, risk premium and risk aversion
measures. We suggest that the particularities of the transition
economy, especially the mixture of market and central planning
mechanisms, imply on the utility function arguments and so the
arguments mentioned are values with high uncertainty levels.
It means that the corresponding utility has a large standard deviation,
that means in terms of financial analysis that risk increases.
We call that sort of risk deviation-related risk and distinguish
utility - related risk aversion measure. That is why we state
that risk in transition economies has two different images. Thus
we consider both classes of risk while analysing the sample data
and identifying the business behaviour. This requires a new approach
to insurance problems solution. We introduce a new mathematical
methodology which allows to consider risk characterisation problem
for both classes of risk as pattern recognition problem. We suggest
two-stage approach for the solution of this problem. On the first
stage the statistical pattern recognition problem is formulated.
A new pattern recognition method for identifying deviation-related
and utility - related classes of risk is introduced. On the second
stage we analyse the problem of expected utility maximisation.
The solution of the original insurance problem coincides with
the solution of this stochastic optimisation problem. In the
Ukrainian case the approach suggested provides a new mathematical
basis for economical analysis in the sphere of national insurance
regulatory policy, rationalisation of the environmental standards
system and compatibility with the western one.