Emergency Awareness in Planning. Karl G. Palmér, The National Board of Civil Emergency Preparedness, Stockholm, Sweden
The vulnerable society
The trend towards largeness of scale, automation, specialization and globalization has led to an increase in complexity. Systems are large and interdependent. Failure of one system causes repercussions in other systems, thus increasing our vulnerability still further.
The number of risks has increased. If we can identify and deal with risks in peacetime, this will stand us in good stead in an emergency or war.
Emergency awareness in planning and development
Therefore Sweden's parliament decided in the mid 80's to introduce
emergency awareness as a factor in planning and development. It
is the task of the National Board of Civil Emergency Preparedness
to get this message across and initiate implementation on a wide
front. Thinking in terms of emergency awareness means that in
developing the peacetime infrastructure which is crucial to survival
in an emergency or war we must seek solutions aimed at:
Risks and threats
The number of risks has increased. A risk may be defined as the
probability of a certain (undesirable) event occurring and the
consequences this entails. Due to the increase in number of risks
and in technical complexity the probability of undesirable events
has also increased. But worse still, the consequences of these
events are now much more serious than before.
The durability of the peacetime infrastructure
In the old days it was easier to define the difference between
peace and war. Today we can perceive threats as lying somewhere
along a scale from peace and normality to war and destruction,
the ultimate threat being that of a nuclear war.
Costs
It is generally thought that allowing for emergency preparedness
factors will involve increased costs. However, this is not necessarily
the case. In fact , solutions incorporating the emergency preparedness
concept may be cheaper, as expensive or more expensive than conventional
solutions. In some cases the emergency preparedness approach
results in cheaper solutions because risk assessment brines to
light a planning angle that would otherwise have been overlooked.
Often a more durable construction may cut operation and maintenance
costs, thus reducing the total costs.
Emergency awareness in planning - when
Three key principles are to be observed in planning for taking
emergency awareness.
* Location. What is the most appropriate site for a building
or system in the country/county/area or in relation to existing
buildings or plants?
* Design. What is the most appropriate design, what materials
should be used, how should the different functions be located
in relation to one another? Should part of the construction be
built for greater security and strength?
* Equipment. What equipment best meets durability and
flexibility requirements? Should additional equipment be incorporated
as a reserve in the event of stoppages or disruption?
Responsibility
Everybody who is involved in transformation of the society in
to future has a responsibility to be aware of risks and threats
that should be taken into account. There is a possibility - when
making changes in the society - to step by step build a more secure
and sustainable society.
The technical development
The technical development and the economical assessments are changing
more and more rapidly. This may give us new risks and threats,
but very often they give us possibilities to handle old ones.
What was technically impossible yesterday, is possible today
and a good business tomorrow.
One example is the latest technology for rock drilling. Today's
giant drills make it possible to drill tunnels through rock at
an increasingly competitive price. The real cost of rock drilling
tends to diminish over time, while the cost of concrete structures
on land or in the air tends to increase. Therefore, tunnels may
in time become an increasingly attractive solution for planners.
Tunnels are, incidentally, considerably more durable.
Risk-analyses
Risk analyses are a good help to find the risks involved in a
system, a plant or a building. They are basic data in the planning
process. In Sweden we are developing several risk analyses in
separate sectors of the society.
Results
This concept has now been developed for some years and has reached
a rather wide spreading. In Sweden there are a lot of good examples,
especially in electricity, telecommunications, transportation
systems and much more.
We are living in a time of rapid technical development. That
gives us new risks but even -- and may be to a higher decree --
new possibilities to treat risks and threats.