Summary of Meeting Paper

The 1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe

The Identification of Critical Communication Factors from the Use of Communication Models in Failure Analysis. R. Stewart, Kingston University, Penrhyn Road, Kingston upon Thames, Surrey, KT1 2EE; and J. Fortune and G. Peters, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 2AA

Many studies into accidents and disasters have shown that communications failures have played a large part in their causation and in exacerbating their effects once they have occurred. Furthermore, where attempts have been made to draw together the findings from a number of studies, communications has been seen as a major strand. (See for example, Turner (1979), International Conference of Free Trade Unions (1985), Bowonder, Arvind and Myake (1991), Fortune and Peters (1995). This paper builds on the work carried out in this area and examines models that have proved useful in understanding how and why communications fail, or give rise to failure. The models include.

1. The Formal System Model.

Figure 1. The Formal System Model

The Formal System Model (FSM), shown in figure 1, is a model of a robust system that is capable of purposeful activity without failure. The Formal System itself comprises a decision-making subsystem, a performance monitoring subsystem and a set of subsystems and elements that carry out its transformations. Other features include: a continuous purpose or mission; a degree of connectivity between the components; an environment with which the system interacts; boundaries separating the system from its wider system and the wider system from its environment; resources; and some guarantee of continuity. (Note: throughout this paper the word environment is being used in its systems thinking sense.)

For example, the fire fighting of the Manchester Air Crash fire (1985) was dogged by a number of communication failures. Formation of the transformation subsystem was delayed due to failure to communicate rendezvous arrangements to all parties and its operation was hampered due to a breakdown of communication between contractors (in the environment) and airport services resulting in lack of water in the fire hydrants. Decision making was put at risk when the Station Officer in charge of Greater Manchester Council fire fighters was unable to identify the officer commanding the airport fire service.

2. The interpersonal communications process model.

Figure 2. Interpersonal communications process model.

Figure 2 shows a generalised model of the components involved in the process of interpersonal communication. Messages are sent via a communication channel to a receiver and their receipt is acknowledged via a feedback process. Encoding and decoding communication is mediated by a set of symbols whose use is governed by rules that are appropriate to the environment.

Common causes of failure are disruptions in the communication channel or inappropriate choice of channel. If the set of symbols used by the message originator and receiver are not a close approximation to each other then misunderstanding may result. Even when common symbols are used communication may still fail if the information is interpreted or used by the receiver in a way that is different from that intended by the sender. Differences between the environment of the sender and the environment of the receiver may also cause problems.

An example of failure in channels and feedback may be seen in the King's Cross Underground Station fire (1987) where the Fire Service radios could not communicate between the platforms and the surface. The Piper Alpha oil platform disaster (1988) was caused in part by a failure to follow communication rules. The production shifts did not follow company procedures on the Permit to Work system and information about the current maintenance status was not passed from one shift to another.

3. The environment multi-attribute model.

Figure 3. Environment multi-attribute model.

Environmental factors that influence communication can be established and rated for importance (i.e. 0 - 10). Plotted shapes are produced for message transmitters and receivers, similar to that shown in figure 3, and then compared. Wide differences in shape indicate possible causes of failure. For example, if different decision time frames (DTF) are in operation the information communicated may be out of date by the time it is dealt with by the receiver. An example of this can be seen in the London Ambulance Service computer failure (1992) where ambulance dispatch requests were delayed beyond an acceptable limit.

4. The sociometric model.

Figure 4. The Sociometric model

Patterns of communication between individuals can indicate the performance of a system. Sociometric analysis models, as in figure 4, provide graphical information on the communication between and within groups. These patterns can be interpreted to show information flows and related problems, such as, bottlenecks, gatekeepers and individuals who should communicate and do not.

Using sociometric models to look at emergency control during the Piper Alpha disaster shows that the Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) was the communication hub between other drilling platforms, the Emergency Control Centre in Aberdeen and a gas compression platform. Throughout the period of emergency the OIM should have remained in charge, giving status reports, controlling the emergency evacuation and liaison with the rescue services. The demise of the hub in a classic star network lead to a collapse in communication and loss of control.

Critical communication factors

Investigation of failures using these and similar models, for example, Behavioural Models (Stewart, 1991) support the widely accepted view that communications do indeed play a large part in causing accidents and disasters and in exacerbating their effects once they have occurred. Looking at the findings alongside the work of other researchers suggests that it is possible to identify a series of factors that are critical to successful communications in complex undertakings in high risk environments.

The factors that it is possible to draw out include:

The organisational structure must be appropriate for the operating environment;

The purpose of communication must be clearly defined and relevant measurement metrics put in place;

Common communication symbols and rules for use must be agreed;

Appropriate communication channels must be used;

Monitoring and management of group or team behaviour as part of the performance monitoring process.

These and other factors will be discussed further in the paper.

References

Bowonder, B., Arwind, S.S., Miyake, T., 1991, Low probability - high consequence accidents: application of systems theory for preventing hazardous failures, Systems Research, 9.2, 5-58.

Fortune, J., Peters, G., 1995, Learning from Failure, Wiley, Chichester.

International Conference of Free Trade Unions, 1995, The Trade Union Report on Bhopal, International Conference of Free Trade Unions, Geneva.

Stewart, R.W., 1991, The use of Social Paradigms in the analysis of team behaviour during organisational change, Systems Thinking in Europe, Plenum, New York.

Turner, B., 1979, Man-made Disasters, Taylor and Francis, London.