Experiencing Uncertainty and Judging Risk. J. Richard Eiser, Department of Psychology, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QG, UK
This paper will argue for a reconceptualization
of psychological accounts of subjective or 'perceived' risk.
It is proposed that the dangerousness or safety of any object
or activity is stored in memory as a pattern of learned associations
involving contextual cues and approach-avoidance evaluations.
More strongly learned associations are accessed more readily
and with greater subjective certainty. Conversely, uncertainty
is experienced where there are few prior associations or under
conditions where conflicting evaluations are retrieved from memory.
When respondents are asked to give ratings of risk severity and
probability, they may use the strength of these retrieved evaluations
as a cue. However, the evaluations themselves need not be based
on prior calculations either of severity and probability considered
separately, or of the product of these two variables, as implied
by expectancy-value formulations. Implications for risk communication
will be discussed, including dilemmas over advising patients of
possible side-effects of treatment and attempts to 'correct' public
perceptions of technological hazards.