Summary of Meeting Paper

The 1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe

Feasibility Studies Methodology for Sustainable Development of Housing Industry in Romania. Cristian-Silviu Banacu, Assistant Professor Dipl. Engineer

Abstract

The article deals with the possibility to implement the concept of "Sustainable Industrial Production" to actual economic conditions in Romania, taking as example the housing industry. It deals with the idea that the investment risk should be related with the environmental risk.

"Sustainable Development" is a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". (Brundtland Report, WCED, 1987). It underlines the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social Organisation on the environmental ability to meet present and future needs.

The state of Sustainable Development could be reached by creating Sustainable Production in Industry, Agriculture, Constructions, linked to Sustainable Information Systems, Sustainable Transportation, Sustainable Education Systems, Sustainable Health Systems of a national economy.

The care for Environment, the continues improving in quality of products, the flexibility in facing the new technologies together with the traditional ones, taking into account the economic feasibility aspects, must be the principal headlines of every project concerning investments in product development, enterprises, industrial branches, regional economy or whole economy of a state.

Introduction

Any investment in technologies for housing are subjected to feasibility studies. Any feasibility study contain a risk assessment part. (e.g. buildings). The concept of the life-cycle assessment of products, must embrace the multidisciplinary approach: technical, economical, ecological and social.

Life Cycle Risk Assessment (LCRA)

There are many types of risks for investors in the housing industry, mainly being: economical, technical, ecological, social, political. For minimising the risk in the housing industry, at the start-up of any investment project, a product (building) life cycle risk assessment (LCRA) is advisable to be considered (fig. 1).

Fig. 1. The Life-Cycle Risk Assessment of housing-product

The Life Cycle Risk Assessment (LCRA) means the analyse of the possible sources of risk (types, categories, influence on the project) that could appear during different stages of a product-house evolution, from cradle to grave

Benchmarking for risk assessment

Benchmarking has been recognised as a technique that can assess a process performance related with best practice levels. Feasibility studies could use the benchmarking techniques in order to illustrate the evolution / development / regression of production systems in the building industry, taking into account the technical, economical and ecological aspects. This could also be used in risk assessments, because the products and processes, are demanded more and more, to be environmentally accepted. Therefore, new classes of measures as technical-economical-ecological measures are demanded in order to assesses properly the complex problem of sustainability. In such a way could be defined the Reconversion Factor (RF) and the Sustainability Factor (SF). The Reconversion Factor as the ratio Qe / Q, characterise the capability of a product (e.g. building) to be easy recyclable. The Sustainability Factor (SF) means the factor that has the capability of being used in 3D (three dimensions) environment: technologic, economic, ecologic. It gives the possibility to products and processes to be assessed in a holistic way. The Sustainability Factor is done by the following proposed model:

(1)

or (2)

where E = Efficiency, T = time, P = productivity, Q = quality and considering the Productivity = f (time), Profit = f (price), Reconversion = f (Quality), will result that Sustainability Factor (SF) is a function of Efficiency, Productivity, Flexibility, Profit and Quality of products and processes to make products. The mathematical relations (1;2) could be illustrated in a 3D benchmarking system (figure 1).

Values of the transformation factor for different production circumstances

Figure I Benchmarking values of the Transformation Factor for different production situations in building industry, in a 3D reference system, for minimising investment risk.

A: mass production, high productivity, one product, low quality, product low reconversion capability, B: mass production, high productivity, one product, high quality, high reconversion capability, C: mass production, low productivity, various products, medium quality, medium reconversion capability, D: mass production, low productivity, various products, low quality, high reconversion capability.

Conclusions

For minimising risks of investments in the construction industry, the risk assessment must be done from the sustainability perspective, because that could offer a holistic approach: technical, economical, ecological, social.