Summary of Meeting Paper

The 1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe

Risk, Ruin, and Luxury in Primitive Societies. U. Ulrich Müller-Herold, Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; and R. P. Sieferle, Historisches Institut der Universität, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany

Anthropologists of earlier generations have always pictured Stone Age man as living on the brink of starvation. According to this view, his life consisted - as Marvin Harris ironically put it in retrospect - of a continuous battle for survival, "a time of great fear and insecurity, when people spent their days ceaselessly searching for food and their nights huddled about fires in comfortless caves besieged by saber-toothed tigers."1 This view was seriously undermined when in 1972 the American anthropologist Marshall Sahlins2 characterised Stone Age society as the "original affluent society." Drawing on field studies, above all on Richard Lee's studies of the bushmen of the Kalahari, Sahlins showed that even in such a hostile environment as that of the Kalahari desert, a life of relative material affluence was possible. People had an adequate, balanced diet, consisting of one-third meat and two-thirds plants, with a high proportion of protein. The women gathered over a hundred different species of roots, nuts and tubers, spending not more than two or three days on the process. They did not build up supplies of food, as sufficient quantities were always available for gathering. The men likewise dedicated two to three days a week to the hunt, pursuing not less than 54 edible species of animal.

Sahlin's work, and the literature in the wake of his study, aimed at the reconstruction of the functional significance of this behavioural pattern, as finally presented in a coherent manner by Dieter Groh.3 Groh is concerned with the general reconstruction of the social logic of "subsistence economies," which is to be categorically distinguished from that of other economies, above all market economies. Subsistence economies existed among Palaeolithic hunter-gatherer societies as well as among early peasant societies. It is only the agrarian civilisations that came about some 5,000 years ago that differ from this pattern, although in these, too, there are subsistence economy elements which extend even into the European societies of the Modem age.

The fundamental distinction between a subsistence economy and its opposite and historical successor, the market economy, resides in the fact that the latter is orientated around the production of surplus, or on the principle of the maximisation of yield. The basic strategy attributed to the subsistence economy, by contrast, is that of "minimising of risk." According to Groh this strategy of "risk minimisation" expresses in a unity of "underproductivity" - by which is meant, the systematic under-use of resources - and a behavioural orientation in the sense of "leisure preference".

"Leisure preference" - or "laziness", in common parlance - is a form of behaviour in primitive societies that at a very early stage attracted the (disparaging) notice of observers coming from a commercial or industrial society. Colonisers repeatedly complained at the behaviour of the indigenous or local lower classes of society, which consisted in ceasing to work as soon as they thought they had earned enough. This was a mode of behaviour that at first sight appeared to run entirely counter to the logic of the modem market economy. In the context of a market economy, such behaviour need not count as imprudent if it can be interpreted to the effect that the individual worker perceives a greater benefit in the avoidance of "the misery of work" than in the increase of the consumption of material goods. The logic of a homo oeconomicus maximising benefits would thus not be shattered by the observation of "leisure preference". Such as pattern of preference, however, is regarded as pretty unusual in modem society, and before talk was of a "post-materialist transformation of values", it carried a whiff of laziness and anti-social tendencies.

Within the basic strategy of a subsistence economy, by contrast, "leisure preference" expresses a functional orientation in the sense of a specific "adaptation" to certain environmental conditions. For "underproductivity" or under-use of resources associated with leisure preference constitutes an evolutionarily successful strategy if the "adaptation" resides less in the attempt actively to control access to resources than in the process of partaking of an already existing flow of resources. Closer inspection, however, reveals the picture of subsistence economies sketched here as requiring additions and corrections. The indiscriminate use of the term "risk minimisation" for subsistence economies is in itself problematic in that it implies that risks are avoided at all costs. It can be shown, however, that in particular situations of scarcity or danger, it is eminently sensible - and also an observable fact - to accept calculated risks if, by this means, the chances of survival are increased per saltum. A case of this nature has been presented by Ruth Mace, using the Gabbra, a pastoral people of East Africa.4 Mace's study revealed that, in view of a greatly fluctuating environmental situation, two complementary modes of behaviour were to be observed within the population. Anyone in the relatively safe position of having a large herd does indeed attempt to minimise risks. Anyone whose herd is too small to cope with variations, however, puts everything on a single card, so to speak, as this way there is at least a chance that the herd might manage to survive. Both modes of behaviour can be seen as elements of a superior strategy, whose objective is to guarantee the long-term existence of families in such a manner that the shortage of a limiting resource does not lead to destruction. Decisive for the evaluation of a ruin avoidance strategy as one of "maximum ruin avoidance" is the switch from risk-oriented to risk-avoiding behaviour at a well defined turning-point, as deduced by Mace by means of a corresponding dynamic programming model. In line with risk research, a type of behaviour is defined here as risk-orientated when, the choice being between two alternatives, that one is consistently selected which is characterised by greater insecurity regarding the consequences considered.

This superior overall strategy in subsistence economics should be termed a "strategy of maximum ruin avoidance" within which "risk minimisation" is only one - albeit frequently occurring - element among others. Closer examination of "risk minimisation" can ultimately demonstrate that the combination of "underproductivity" or under-use of resources with "leisure preference" once again represents merely a certain band of a larger spectrum of behaviour within which, historically, solutions in the sense of a portfolio formation have developed.

When the availability of resources in a particular habitat fluctuates and a group wishes passively to adapt to these fluctuations, a prudent strategy is to stabilise consumption below the effective lower margin of this fluctuation. As shown in the first figure, we have a certain human habitat within which a "limiting factor" r - for example, water, game or certain edible plants - fluctuates at irregular intervals. In this first and most simple instance, which most probably corresponds to the mode of existence of Palaeolithic hunter-gatherer societies, the group orientates itself around the lower fluctuation margin of the limiting factor which is to be anticipated in the long term. By this means, it maintains a safety margin to the average value. It follows that this society almost always lives in circumstances that can be described as superabundance. This "luxury margin" can be very far removed from the lower fluctuation limit, but the latter constitutes precisely the bottleneck which, in some extreme situation, society may have to pass. A growth in population or of the material throughput onto a superior margin would in the longer term be (ceteris paribus) fatal.

The greater the fluctuation, the greater is the expected superabundance under normal conditions. Richard Lee, for instance, estimates that the !Kung San in the Kalahari generally use only half the average available food resources - and these are normally those that can be procured with the least effort. In cultural terms, this behavioural pattern finds expression in the observed leisure preference, which functionally orientates the individuals towards the under-use of resources. The ecological effect of this strategy is the sustained occupation of a niche that places little strain on the environment.

It can be shown that not only the orientation at the lower edge of the fluctuation spectrum but also other behavioural patterns can be understood as successful adaptations in the sense of ruin avoidance - at least for short and middling periods of several thousand years. For this purpose we take the following basic model as our starting-point. In a particular habitat, a limiting factor fluctuates in time. We assume that two different habitats in which the limiting factors fluctuate more or less independently of one another, are used with half the intensity. Their combined use is then subject to a lesser fluctuation, and the lower edge of the fluctuation band comes closer to the mean value (portfolio effect).

In historical terms, four different strategies of diversification can be identified for the use of the portfolio effect: migration, storekeeping, transport and the scattering of cultivable land. The combination of storekeeping and trade provides a basis of the agrarian means of production whose origins date back some 10,000 years and which for some 5,000 years have reached a level of surplus production, which has led them away from the older subsistence economies. According to our model, an impulse for the transition to agriculture resides in the attempt to make the flow of resources permanent by means of portfolio creation and thus in as close an approximation as possible to the average value. This had two fundamental consequences:

The normal state of agrarian civilisations thus essentially consists of a combination of increased security and a reduced level of provisioning. Working long hours and hard, the majority of the population lives in a state of constant material shortage, and "luxury" becomes the preserve of the upper classes. Simultaneously the population density increases, which leads to social conflicts and provides an incentive to develop institutional solutions for coping with them. And, last but not least, pressure on natural resources and on the environment now increases. Seen from this point of view, the meaning and function of luxury assumes a specific historical thrust. In subsistence economies, which to a large extent refrain from technically controlling their resource base, this "under-use" finds expression in a "leisure preference" which indeed leads to a surplus of "work-free" time. The luxury of these societies resides in an excess of time, which is simultaneously greatly prized in cultural terms.

References

Marvin Harris: Cannibals and kings. The origins of culture. Vintage, New York 1978, IX.

Marshall Sahlins: Stone age economics. Tavistock, London 1974, 1-39.

Dieter Groh: "Strategien, Zeit und Ressourcen. Risikominimierung, Unterproduktivität und Mußepräferenz - die zentralen Kategorien von Subsistenzökonomien"(Strategies, time and resources. Risk minimisation, underproductivity and leisure preference - the central categories of subsistence economies). In Dieter Groh: Anthropologische Dimensionen der Geschichte. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main 1992, 54-113.

Ruth Mace 1993: Nomadic pastoralists adopt subsistence strategies that maximise long-term household survival. Behavioural Ecology and Sociobiology, 33, 329-334 (1993).