Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

The Assessment of Technogenic Risk As a Multicriteria Task of Pipeline Systems Management. R. N. Bakhtizin, V. A. Burenin, R. R. Nabieb, and S. V. Pavlov, Institute for Problems of Applied Ecology and Natural Resources Use, 12/1, 8 Marta St., 450005, Ufa, Bashkortostan, Russia, telephone/fax: (3472) 28 75 90, e-mail: ipendy@mts.bashkifia.su

Main pipelines, similar to other complex technical systems, are to be considered as sources of population health and environmental hazard. The actual hazard of any technical system is being assessed by means of the reliability theory, In particular, the failure risk value may serve as a hazard degree indicator for a technical system operation (further on the risk of failure will be called technical risk). It is obvious that the technical risk is increased eventually with the increase of operation time, so in the process of operation it is quite necessary to solve the problem of maximum risk, i.e. the risk level at which the technical system cannot be operated any more. The solution of the problem of maximum risk depends not so much on the system properties but more on those consequences to which the failure may lead.

The reduction of technical risk level requires great material expenses, this is one of the aspects of interdependence between technical and economical problems. The comprehension of this interdependence resulted in the appearance of the "rational risk" concept in the theory of reliability for technical systems.

The attempt to solve the problem of reliability for operation of pipeline systems as extended systems within this particular concept has led to the necessity of working out the criteria which allow to consider not only the technical risk but also the environmental and economical aspects of failure consequences at different sections. There is no doubt that failures of different pipeline sections (e.g., a submerged crossing over the river or a ravine crossing) result in different environmental damage. It is unreasonable to make equal (and very large) investments into providing the reliability of all pipeline sections.

While planning and executing repair and maintenance works at pipeline systems it is proposed to be guided by the assessment of the so-called "technogenic risk," which is a convolution of technogenic risk criteria with environmental and economical consequences of probable failures.

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