Risk Analysis of the Social Conflicts in Time and Space. Y. M. Baturin, Prof., Secretary of Defennce Council of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia; and O. V. Dobrocheev, Ph.D., RRC ‘Kurchatov Institute,’ Moscow, Russia
The purse of the work is the risk analysis of the social conflicts based on the investigation of criminal, terroristic and armed activities fluctuations.
The hypothesis of universal nature of the civilization expansion including criminal activities and even civilization catastrophe has been assumed.
On this base the statistical analysis of the fatalities dynamic in social conflicts has been made. The spectral analysis data over a wide frequency range from l/day to 1/year has been used in the study.
The typical frequencies of the social conflicts in time and space similar to hydrodynamic turbulence. The analogue of well known Kolmogorv regularity of energy dissipation has been found here.
The semiempirical model of the social conflict in time and space has been developed.
Go to:
Table of Contents of the 1997
SRA-Europe Conference
Program of the 1997 SRA-Europe Conference
RiskWorld Welcome Page
Tec-Com, Inc.