Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

Risk Assessment of Falling Ill with Cerebral Thrombosis for People Being Exposed to the Influence of Ionizing Radiation. A. Y. Bushmanov, 'Central Medical Department - 811, Seversk (Totmsk-7), Russia; and A. L. Merziyakov, and K. F. Vasiliev, Environment Protection Committee, Seversk (Tomsk-7), Russia.

The comparative analysis of cerebral thrombosis rate was carried out during the period from 1993 to 1995 for residents of Seversk and for the personnel of radiochemical plant (residents of as well) being exposed to the professional influence of ionizing radiation at the age of 2059.

During a three year period 40 cases of cerebral thrombosis were registered ill "irradiated" (group, numbering front 6463 to 6689 depending on a year of monitoring. Size of the population of Seversk at the age of 20-59 varied from 58509 to 58797 during this period, The number of cerebral thrombosis cases in this group varied from 102 to 141 in a year.

Totally accumulated doses of general external gamma irradiation were accounted for by the data of individual photo-control. For the persons suffering from cerebral thrombosis the doses changed from 0,001 Cy to 0,52 Gy and were on the average 0, 13 ± 0,01 Gy. The plutoniuini-239 content in the organism was estimated by the level of the natural excretion of radionuclides with the urine and varied front 0,01 to 37 nKu, an average value was 13,3:3 ± 1,15 nKu.

Absolute risk of falling ill with cerebral thrombosis in the course of three years for urban population at the age of 20-59, not exposed to professional irradiation, was 2,13 x 10-3 and far "irradiated" group - 2,3 x 10-3. The excessive risk for "irradiated" group was not registered.

Thus, the risk of falling ill with cerebral thrombosis far the workers at the age of 20-59 exposed to professional irradiation did not exceed similar parameter for urban population of Seversk.


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