Interrelation of Accident Rate in Energy Sector With the Parameters of Social and Industrial Development. O. V. Dobrocheev, "Kurchatov Institute", Moscow, Russia; and A. A. Solovianov, State Committee for Environment Protection, Moscow, Russia
Temporary variations of the industrial development parameters and, accident rate (oil production, electricity generation, economic and environmental. damage, number of accidents, etc.) were treated by the correlation and spectral analysis methods. 60-, 3-, 15-, and 11-years oscillations of these parameters were discovered, -and high frequency harmonies with approximately 7-, 3-, and 2-years periods.
The number of various natural and social reasons of tight connections between industrial development and accidents were, determinated. For example dynamic interrelation of the oil production gain with annual number of people wounded is displayed as in synchronism of these amplitudes, as in identical periods of fluctuations.
The accident rate peaks in the world in 1934, 1944, 1956, 1966 and 1977 can be connected with known approximately 11-years cycles of the solar activity. The traces of the 11-years fluctuations of the solar activity and their some high frequency harmonies are established practically in all spectra of the industrial development and accident rate.
The phenomenological model of the processes based or, simple extrapolation and wave, and more complex Fokker-Planck equations were constructed.
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