Uncertainty, Security Threat, and Judgement of Risk. Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjöberg, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway Center for Risk Research, Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden
Risk judgements and risk management are vital parts of traditional security policy. Such a policy involves deciding on which countermeasures should be implemented in peace time to manage possible, future threats to the country. The nature of these tasks involve the handling of incomplete, imprecise, and uncertain information. This project aims at studying (a) the content structure in the decision or judgement process, i.e. (i) how experts and initiated persons conclude what aspects are of relevance to a judgement, (ii) how experts in fact handle generic uncertainty, incomplete and imprecise information, and (iii) how included aspects are weighted and fitted into a final judgement or decision. The project also aims at studying (b) communication problems between experts from different fields of expertise, i.e. (i) what types, of problems usually appear in the communication between experts of different disciplines or areas of expertise where cooperation is a part of problem solving, (ii) perceived reasons to communication failures or problems, (iii) how a common conclusion or agreement can be achieved, and (iv) perceived consequences of this process on risk management. The project was started in the spring of 1997 and the presentation includes an outline of theoretical and methodological considerations, and some preliminary results.
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