Communicating with the Public About Risk via Realistic Scenarios. Ann Enander, Department of Leadership, National Defence College, Järnvägsgatan 6, 652 25 Karlstad, fax +46 (0)54 149840, e-mail Ann.Enander@mhs.mfl.se
Risk communication is most often discussed in relation to two main problem areas. One deals with societal risk issues, in particular when there is some conflict or strong concern on the part of the public. The second area concerns information on risks related to personal life style and individual behaviour. A third area, less often focused, concerns maintaining societal preparedness in relation to major low-likelihood high-consequence hazards. Here the communication challenge appears to he in maintaining high emergency preparedness without causing undue anxiety. This area of communication also raises questions about responsibility for different aspects of preparedness and public confidence. Some key issues involved in this type of risk communication are discussed here on the basis of data from recent experiences involving realistic scenarios.
During the spring of 1996 two rescue service exercises were carried out in Sweden during which live information concerning an ongoing imaginary scenario was transmitted to the public via the local radio. These exercises were the first of their kind and have therefore been the subject of follow-up studies. The first exercise was carried out in April on the island of Gotland using two scenarios: one concerning a threat of radioactivity from the Ignalina nuclear power station and one involving a collision at sea with loss of fives and a threat of an oil spill. A major information campaign was conducted prior to the exercises in order that all residents should be informed and not be misled by the realistic broadcasts. A study based on telephone interviews and postal questionnaires (N = 998, response rate 62%) was conducted in order to study how the public had experienced the exercise and the information related to it. The second exercise was carried out in May in the county of Uppland, where over 400 people were evacuated from the island of Gräsö. The underlying scenario concerned a controlled emission from Forsmark nuclear power station. Experiences from the evacuees were collected by means of a questionnaire.
Data on public reactions from these two follow-up studies are discussed in relation to public risk perception, confidence in authorities and general preparedness.
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