Assessment of Human Factor Uncertainties and Risks Comparisons for Optimization of Hazardous Energetics and Industry. V. A. Eremenko and V. F. Sharov, RTC "SA", Russian Research Center "Kurchatov Institute," Kurchatov plosch. 1, 123182 Moscow, RF, fax: (7.095)196.98.30, e-mail VITALY@GLAS.APC.ORG
To solve the such complex problem several assumptions and restrictions were accepted. They have allowed to construct an available model and to search for a solution for individual cases, however the most interesting for Russia and East Europe.
Firstly, we have concentrated our attention on uncertainties of the human factor in accidental conditions only . The following reasons were took into account.
As known, there are three main dangerous impacts on the environment and people health from energy sources: ever increasing of intervention into natural resources; continued pollution which accompany of the most industrial operations; and, finally, severe industrial accidents. However, since Chernobyl disaster, the risk of severe accidents is of the most concern in this country, when an optimal energy or industrial source is selected.
Further, there are three main areas of human activities in this field: prevention of accidents; weakening of its consequences, including of pre-accident and past-accident measures; and, at last, the past-accident recovery. We include for analysis two last items. Secondly, the human activities are considered at all phases moving of raw materials (fuel in energetic) and life cycle stages of the given industrial source. Each phase of the materials (fuel) cycle is unavoidable include a human activity on all life stages, with unavoidable human deficiencies (e.g., with human errors). The totals sum of the unraveled deficiencies we define as uncertainty. Two kinds of human deficiencies (in simplest case, e.g., human errors) are considered in our model. These are, the so-called anthropogenous nitial events of accidents (AIE ) and anthropogenous common causes or modes failures (ACCF or ACNE).
Thirdly, the sources of human inadequacy he in the three main spheres of deficiencies of human activity: professional knowledge and skills; social and psychological objectives, i.e. motives; in the organizational structures and methods functioning of groups of specialists in energetic and industrial processes, Within the framework of named above restrictions and assumptions were created a model and carried out a quantitative calculation of uncertainties of the human factor. At that for validation of the model was use an example of the operation phase from the nuclear fuel cycle for all stages of life cycle of a typical Nuclear Power Source. A criterion is proposed to quantitative determination of a share of the human factor in the total risk. The criterion, in according to our experience with the model, shows, that the human factor is responsible for the main sources and sizes of most large accidents in the nuclear energetic and probably in the whole hazardous industry. The received results convincingly testify for gravity of continuation of work on calculation of uncertainties of the human factor for choice of safety sources in energetic and industry.
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