Risk
Management in Nuclear Energy Sector: Marginal Costs Optimization Method (MCOM).
A. Fedorov, V.A. Legasov International
Foundation for Safe Development of Civilisation,
The method for
nuclear risk management is proposed to operationalize ICRP Guiding Principles
for Radiological Protection. These principles require that all risks, rising
from nuclear cycle, must be managed in such a way as to maximize the net benefit
to society. Practical implementation of this "optimization" principle
poses serious difficulties because the consistent methodology for quantification
and comparison across all risks and benefits associated with nuclear energy is
yet to be developed. In the proposed MCOM, gains and losses in life expectancy
are used to measure benefits and costs of a practice. The difference between
these gains and losses, called "net benefit", is then maximized, using
the range of available alternatives and policies. Marginal life prolongation
cost (MLPC), defined as the dollar amount of GDP, needed to increase life
expectancy in a given country by one year, is used to calculate the benefit of a
practice. Life-saving cost (LSQ), associated with radiological protection
measures, is used to quantify aggregated risks of nuclear energy cycle. The
overall expenditures in risk reduction are proven to be optimal when MLPC equals
LSC. Because MPLC indicator characterizes the socio-economic system as a whole,
our method presents an attempt to balance the cost of radiological risk
reduction against all other societal risks and benefits of nuclear energy. The
optimal investments in radiological risk reduction are calculated for a number
of countries and compared with existing present-day expenditures. A simple
"rule of a thumb" is derived: optimal cost of collective dose
reduction by 1 man Sv for a given country equals its GDP (in ths dol.) per
person squared. Non-linear dependency may be explained by the law of diminishing
returns. The proposed MCOM may serve as a benchmark in important safety
decisions.
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