Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

Summary Radiating Risk from Chernobyl of Accident. Nikolay I. Omeljanets and Sergey N. Omeljanets, Scientific Center of Radiation Medicine, 53, Melnikov str, Kiev, Ukraine, 254050, fax +380 (044) 213-72-02, e-mail sam@rcrm.freenet.viaduk.net

In available numerous researches on study of medical effects after the Chernobyl accident the insufficient attention is given to medico-demographic parameters which, describe the population's health in radio-active of polluted districts. In this message results of supervision at 5 years up to and 10 years after accident on the most polluted areas of Ukraine (Zhitomir, Kiev, Rovno, Chernigov) and them 15 regions are generalized. Investigated a state of current of pregnancy and deliveries, birth-rate of the population, a parity of sexes among of the newborn children, still-born rate, mortality of the children in age up to 1 year and reason of death on a sex, mortality of the population general and on the reasons, sex, age, morbidity of the population general on the reasons and age. Dynamics of parameters was compared to data of levels of pollution the soil by radioisotopes of 134, 137Cs and 90Sr, dozes of irradiation of the whole body and thyroid.

The researches have revealed changes of the majority of investigated demographic parameters. In view of the theoretical analysis and received statistical connections with radioactive pollution and dozes irradiation states the assumptions, that the revealed changes were a consequence of effect in the first months after failure of high levels of ionisative radiation. The arising changes can be determined as a consequence of teratogenic and genetic effect of irradiation. On separate parameters quantitative dependencies are established.

Is shown, that on expiration of the first decade after failure demographic parameters, morbidity and mortality of the irradiated population continue to be worsened by faster rates, than non irradiated. Work on an establishment of dozes of irradiation of the population are not completed, it is not enough economic resources for realization of anti-radiation, medical and social protection damaging.

At the same time the experts of international scientific community do not consider of negative changes of morbidity, mortality, reproductive of function, duration of life as a consequence of effect of ionizative radiation. In spite of a recognition of unusually high levels of thyroid carcinoma, inductive by irradiation continues yet to dominate the opinion about of relative safety for a health the generated by accident irradiation, that results in reduction of the programs of protection of the population from radiation. The only possible consequence of irradiation recognizes risk of cancer diseases. At the same time the offered forecasts of their exit are rather optimistical.

Proceeding from scales of accident and features of irradiation of the Chernobyl accident is offered to consider as a source of wider variety of risks. Among them there should be risks of death of the children in age up to 1 year, death from inherent defects of development, not cancer of diseases, total mortality, genetic and other. Therefore in the basis of evaluation of danger of the Chernobyl accident should underlie the summary radiating risk. Further researches on account of depending on doze-effect for refinement of safe levels irradiation are necessary.


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