Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

A Methodology for Calculating Individual Risk in the Vicinity of Airports and Its Application to Decision Making. P. G. Cowell, National Air Traffic Services Ltd., 45-59 Kingsway, London WC2B 6TE; A. W. Evans, Centre for Transport Studies, University of London, Gower St., London WC1E 6BT; P. B. Foot, National Air Traffic Services Ltd., 45-59 Kingsway, London WC2B 6TE; R. Gerrard, School of Actuarial Science and Statistics, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB; S. M. Mason, I. G. Parker, D. S. Paterson, and K. Slater, National Air Traffic Services Ltd., 45-59 Kingsway, London WC2B 6TE

There are restrictions on land use near busy airports (Public Safety Zones) in the UK (and in some other countries) because there is a higher risk of aircraft accidents in those areas. This risk must be estimated and its tolerability assessed if airports and the surrounding land are to be used efficiently and safely. A methodology for estimating this risk has recently been developed based on an analysis of empirical accident data. Risk tolerability criteria for appraising this risk were derived and proposals for revised Public Safety Zones were made.

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