Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis-Europe 1997 Annual Meeting

Quantitative Safety Analysis: Conceptual Framework and Case Studies . Ch. Fermaud, Th. Peter, and H. Bohnenblust, Ernst Basler + Partners Ltd., CH-8702 Zollikon, Switzerland

In the long run, a conceptual framework with appropriate tools and methods is a prerequisite for a common understanding of safety management. It provides the foundation for decisionmakers who are thinking about the future and who need to make better choices. Furthermore, a conceptual framework can play a major role in improving communication, establishing a common language and focusing the discussion on the key issues.

A conceptual framework is no panacea. However, it does provide the means to address many different facets of safety problems in a systematic and explicit manner. The framework presented has been used in different European countries to change and improve safety in the concerned systems under tight financial conditions. Two case studies, the risk based concept for flood prevention in Luxembourg, and the safety management for the transportation of dangerous goods on railways in Germany will be discussed.


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