The Cognitive Architecture of Risk Perceptions: Pancultural Unity or Cultural Variation. Eugene A. Rosa, Department of Sociology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4020 USA, rosa@wsu.edu, Fax: 1-509-335-6419; and Noriyuki Matsuda, Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennou-dai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, JAPAN, mazda@shako.sk.tsukuba.ac.jp, Fax: 81-0298-55-3849
Virtually all definitions of risk have uncertainty as a central feature. Uncertainty is also a fundamental element of human existence: from primordial times to the present and beyond, humans are perforce always confronted with uncertainty and with the need to make choices with probabilistic outcomes. This observation raises a fundamental question about human perception and thinking: Does the universal experience of uncertainty, despite widely varied cultural contexts, imply that humans have evolved a common cognitive architecture? Or, is culture so powerful a social force that it is the principal shaper of how humans perceive, think, and react to uncertainty? Here we discipline these theoretically rich questions and empirical evidence. The proper way to address these questions empirically is to examine perceptions cross-culturally. This, in fact, has been done (although typically not for the theoretical purposes raised here). There is now a growing body of cross-cultural studies of risk perceptions, using the psychometric paradigm, comparing Americans to Hungarians, to Norwegians, to the French, to Poles, to Hong Kongese and others. The general finding is that the cognitive maps from these different cultures are similar. The validity of these findings need to be verified with more rigorous procedures and with statistical techniques more suited to the questions posed. We attempt to correct for weakness in existing cross-cultural studies by testing a covariance structural modes (LISREL) with comparable data from the US and Japan, two very different cultures sharing many of the same risks.