Sequential Decision Model for Flood Risk Evaluation. J. R. Olsen, P. A. Beling, J. H. Lambert, and Y. Y. Haimes, Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903
Flooding continues to be a major problem in many areas of the United States. Traditional flood risk analysis is a static comparison of the costs and benefits of a flood control structure. However, flooding occurs sequentially over time, and floodplain management decisions may be different depending on whether a flood has occurred or not. This paper develops a sequential decision model to compare different floodplain management policies. The state variables in the model are the level of flood protection and the level of economic development for each floodplain. The objective of the model is to minimize the combined cost of flood control and flood damages with the policy decisions being the level of flood protection and zoning restrictions for each floodplain. The paper also incorporates multiple objectives into the sequential decision model. These objectives include maximizing wetland preservation and maximizing the economic development of the floodplain in addition to minimizing costs and damages. A method of solution using linear programming is presented.