Decision and Risk Analysis to Enhance Decision Making Under Uncertainty for Brownfield Redevelopment. Steven J. Sonnen, William E. Wright, and Michael J. Stafford, Montgomery Watson, 2375 130th Ave. N.E., Suite 200, Bellevue, WA 98005-1758
A stochastic decision and risk analysis (D&RA) was conducted for three strategies being considered for remediation of 460 acres of former oil production and refining properties which had been sold for residential and commercial redevelopment. For each of the strategies under consideration, uncertainties in the costs of various components and the likelihood of technical success were considered. Also incorporated were uncertainties in the affected soil volumes, the concentration profile of the soil, and the capacities available for various disposal methods. With regard to mean expected cost, two of the strategies (Options 1 & 2) were essentially equivalent. Option 3, an option initially preferred by several of the D&RA team members, exceeded the expected cost of Options 1 & 2 by approximately 90based on a comparison of means. The analysis also displayed which parcels of land contributed most to the overall remediation cost as well as which parcels contributed most to the uncertainty in the overall remediation cost. The results of the D&RA provided insight into primary cost components of remediation, allowed for optimization of the selected remediation strategy, and resulted in anticipated savings of millions of dollars.