Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 1997 Annual Meeting

Effects of Funding Delays on Environmental Problems. I. C. Datskou and C. L. Arquiett, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) is responsible for remediating approximately 130 sites and facilities in more than 30 states. Funding and scheduling is of great concern for planning remediation projects. Constant, or "flat", funding limits restrict project planning options that may reduce life-cycle costs. Planners may give projects that reduce maintenance costs priority over low risk activities. To make appropriate decisions about project planning on a programmatic level, DOE must gather information about the impacts that delayed scheduling will have on life-cycle costs. A scope growth analysis was performed to examine potential impacts on the scope of the EM program, of delaying remediation of specific projects for 5, 10, 25, or 50 years. Impacts evaluated include: 1) plume activity and status of contaminated media after proposed delay periods; 2) natural attenuation of contaminants during the proposed delay periods; and 3) potential changes in risk and cost of remediation due to contaminant migration and plume transformation. Approximately thirty environmental restoration projects at four major DOE installations (Oak Ridge Reservation, Savannah River Site, Rocky Flats, and Idaho National Engineering Laboratory) were selected for this study. The technical approach and results of this study are presented.