Debiasing Illusory Self Estimates: The Role of Prefactual Thinking. Frank P. McKenna, University of Reading
The unrealistic optimism literature indicates that people tend to underestimate their personal risk and overestimate their personal skill. It has also been found that these judgments are resistant to intervention. The likely consequences for self protective behaviour are often considered. The present research programme indicates how prefactual thinking, the exploration of possible worlds, might alter judgments. In principle, mental simulation allows individuals to explore alternative possible worlds and, in theory at least, to benefit from the virtual experience without the necessity of the actual experience. There are many areas such as health risk where this approach if realisable could have important implications. The present work will attempt to identify the key components of the virtual experience that prompt change.