Cognitive and Emotional Evaluation of Environmental Risks. Josef Nerb and Hans Spada, University of Freiburg, Germany
Probabilities of actual or potential harms of risk sources are seldom used in lay peoples evaluation of environmental risks. One reason for this neglect is simply the absence of these data - even for experts; another reason is that information about global environmental risks is mediated printed or on the TV by short, specific, highly vivid, and repeated reports consisting of single cases descriptions (e.g., accidents and hazards) or of worst case scenarios.
This kind of information often leads to negative emotional evaluations of environmental risks. McDaniels, Axelrod and Slovic (1995) found that the emotionality of a risk source almost predicts its acceptance. Though the importance of emotional reactions towards environmental risks is widely acknowledged, the cognitive mechanisms underlying the evaluation process were seldom investigated nor were the specific emotions that those risks elicit appropriately differentiated.
In our contribution, we propose a model that spans the bridge between ecological information (e.g., newspaper reports), cognitive and emotional evaluation, and resulting action tendencies. The model integrates psychological theories of emotions (appraisal theories) with theories about the attribution of responsibility (Weiner, 1995) into a computational model using a parallel constraint satisfaction approach (Holyoak & Thagard, 1995). The model precisely explains and predicts different distinct emotions (anger vs. sadness) towards environmental risks and also describes mechanisms of stereotype reactions (for a similar approach in a different domain, see Kunda & Thagard, 1996).
The model is in line with various theoretical and empirical results and part of its assumptions were already tested in own experimental work. Beside its implications for risk perception, the model sheds light on appropriate risk-communication and crisis-response strategies (Coombs, 1995).
References:
Coombs, W. T. (1995). Choosing the right words: The development of guidelines for the selection of the appropriate crisis-response strategies. Management Communication Quarterly, 8(4), 447-476.
Holyoak, K. J. & Thagard, P. (1995). Mental leaps: Analogy in creative thought. Cambridge, MA, US: MIT Press.
Kunda, Z. & Thagard, P. (1996). Forming impressions from stereotypes, traits, and behaviors: A parallel-constraint-satisfaction theory. Psychological Review, 103(2), 284-308.
McDaniels, T., Axelrod, L. & Slovic, P. (1995). Characterizing perception of ecological risk. Risk Analysis, 15(5), 575-609.
Weiner, B. (1995). Judgments of responsibility: A foundation for a theory of social conduct. New York, NY: Guilford Press.