Analysis of Exogenous Components of Mortality Risks and Levels for Moscow and Russian Population As a Whole During 1980 -1997. A. N. Protsenko, Russia, Nuclear Safety Institute Russian Academe of Sciences, 113191 Moscow, Bolshaja Tulskaja 52, IBRAE, telephone/fax: (095) 95526 14, e-mail prot@ibrae.ac.ru; and V. L. Blinkin, USA, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Epidemiology
New technique of separation of exogenous components of mortality risks from total statistical data has been developed. Absolute value of mortality risk cannot form the basis for the judgments about a level of public safety, as the death rate in many respects depends on biological and genetic singularities, that endogenous factors.
However, if to analyze statistical representative data of death rates as a function of both sex and age for the certain population, it is possible to separate exogenous and endogenous components, so long as the endogenous component is rather steady and poorly varies for a long time. This circumstance has been known as the Gompertz - Makeham law since the nineteenth century, according to which the death rate d(t,t) of depends on age in following way:
d(t,t) = R(t) + beat,
where t is time, t is age, R(t) is variable, depending only on time and interpreted as exogenous component of mortality risk as a function only of age, a and b are constant.
However more careful investigations reveal that the term R(t) also depends on age t, and in approximation of the above equation it describes exogenous component of death rate integrally for all ages. Therefore the relation ship between death rate and both age and time have be noted more adequate.
The analysis of exogenous risk levels for the Moscow population and Russian population as a whole during 1980 1997 has been carried out. It is shown that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk for the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994, and in 1995 a little bit reduced but, nevertheless, remained much higher than a level 1993 and preceding years. The greatest contribution to a total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases. Dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990-1994 in the Moscow population and average in the Russian population had been identical: the risk had been increasing, and its value for the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population.
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