Assessment and Comparative Analysis of Health Risks Caused by Contaminated Environment in Moscow. Dr. A. A. Bykov and Dr. V. Akimov, Russian Research Institute on the Problems of Civil Defence and Emergency Control under Russian Ministry for Emergencies, 7, Davydkovskaya, Moscow, Russia, 121352, fax: 7-095-265-3718; and Dr. Revich B. A., Leading Researcher of Centre of Demography and Human Ecology, Institute of the Forecasting of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
The paper is devoted to the attempt of estimation and interpretation of the contribution of existing air and water pollution levels to the mortality frequency of Moscow population. For this purpose we overwied, combined and averaged the national (EPA, US), international (WHO) and other recommendations for health risk assessments. Based upon these recommendations and the data of stationary control monitoring posts we made the interval and mean assessments of the health risk orders for population of Moscow. The choice of pollutants is closely connected with the Russian monitoring standards and analytical methods of air and water pollution control. A small number of substances are under continuous control at stationary monitoring posts. We used the pollutants for which we have found the references of their potential hazard in the range of measured concentrations in the air and drinking water. Preliminary results of our estimations are presented as (1) absolute quantities of deaths caused by the air and water pollution in Moscow, (2) the relative contribution of pollutants to the corresponding mortality rates of Moscow population. The assessments show that the contribution of air and drinking water pollution in Moscow to the mortality is about some percents with dominated role of “classical pollutants” and relatively hazardous carcinogens like Benzene and Benzo(a)pyrene. To make a comparative analysis with other kind of risks and understand the danger of air pollutions based upon a certain classification of hazards, we introduce a rough scale guide of risk orders and corresponding hazard scale. All risk range was divided into Low, Middle and High risk magnitudes with certain differentiation inside each risk range. Hazard scale varying from 1 up to 8 (the numbers of risk hazards reflects the orders of health risk) helps to compare quite uncertain health risk estimations. Based upon this classification we made a comparative analysis of danger from air and water pollutions with main causes of death and nature hazards. This analysis show the relatively hazard pollutants which must undergoes to further investigation and be included in cost-benefit analysis for the optimal risk reduction decisions.
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