The Urgency of the Ecological-Genetic Risk Analysis from Submerged Chemical Weapons in Baltic Sea Has Increased After the Chernobyl Disaster. Igor I. Suskov, M.D., Ph.D., N.I.Vavilov Institute of General Genetics, Russian Academy of sciences, Gubkin str.,3 , 117809, Moscow, Russia, telephone (095)132-89-62, fax (095)-135-12-89, 132-89-62, e-mail postmast@iogen.msk.su; Alexandre I. Glouchtchenko, Ph.D, Vladimir A. Shevchenko, Ph.D., Prof., Valentin A. Tarasov, Ph.D., Prof., N.I.Vavilov Institute of General Genetics, Rus. Acad. of Sci., Moscow; Boris T. Surikov, Ph.D., Major-general, Institute of USA&Canada, Rus.Acad.of Sci., Moscow; Vladimir L. Zimin, V.G.Khlopin Radium Institute, Ministry of Atomic Energy RF., S-Peterburg; and Andrei A. Bykov, Ph.D., Prof., Russian Economical Academy, Moscow
If the Chernobyl nuclear disaster became possible in the non-democratic society, the approaching ecological chemical disaster might be happened in following years in the community of European democratic states. 300 thousands tons of the German chemical weapons were sunk by the allies (USA, GB and USSR) after World War II, in 1947 in the southern part of Baltic Sea and its straits. Because of metal corrosion in sea-water, an intensive process of going-out of poison gases (yperite, leusite etc.) in an environment will begin in the next 5-7 years. This will entail a contamination of sea flora and fauna , a poisoning of European human population, first of all, in the countries of Northern Europe. The high toxicogenity of the mustard poisons is well-known. The situation is aggravated as by Chernobyl fallouts, the highest density of which in Western Europe had placed exactly in the Baltic countries (Sweden, Germany, Norway), as by the presence of potentially dangerous NPPs with the reactors RBMK (Ignalinskaya, Leningradskaya) near the Baltic sea-shore. The high mutagenity of long-living radionuclides is well-known also.
The vector of ecological-genetic risk X may be introduced for the estimation of the total influence of the chemical and radiation factors on man, nature and society:
X = { xi,j; wi,j },
which is characterized by sizes of the consequences xi,j of the technogenic origin, and wi,j -- the increasing probabilities of their realization. The ecological-economical and medical-genetic consequences of these processes for Europe are not predicted in present time. With the purpose of the determination of real factors of risk (the estimation of degree of danger) from chemical poisons and radionuclides for the ecological and human health it’s necessary to perform the complex of international works on the ecological-genetic monitoring of the populations of sea flora and fauna in the areas of submerged weapons and on the medical-genetic monitoring of the Baltic sea-shore inhabitants. The Russian scientists have worked out the conception and methodology of the similar monitoring (“Proceedings of the X Annual Meeting SRA-E”, Stockholm, 1997). This work may be perform in 1999-2000 together with western collaborators and the financial support of the European Community and USA. On the basis of risk analysis may be proposed the tactics and strategy of the minimization of ecological-economical damages. The effectiveness of this work will be sufficiently high, if the European countries interested in its success will recognize the principles of ecological parity and the necessary information will be represented for the public control.
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