Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 1998 Annual Meeting

An Approach of Investigating Factors Influencing Decision Making Risk and Safety Issues. Örjan Lajksjö, National Defence College, Department of Leadership, Järnvägsgatan 6, S-652 25 Karlstad, Sweden, telephone +46 54 149833, fax +46 54 149840, e-mail orjan.lajksjo@fhs.mil.se

This paper deals with an investigation of factors influencing decision making of politicians and officials in 37 Swedish municipalities regarding risk and safety. The problem focused is whether there are any differences between the perspectives of the four municipal functions sampled in this respect -- and if there are, what do they look like. This problem is essential partly in order to acquire knowledge of the relations between different perspectives and decision making, and partly because it is critical for the work of preventing accidents in the municipalities.

The questionnaire was to be answered with the guidance of two constructed scenarios with factual bases: an accident with a dangerous transport into a water supply and a complicated fire in an industrial area near houses. The participants were asked questions about e.g. their roles, possibilities of prevention, chosen alternative and information considered.

The results show a tendency towards isolation between different areas of function in the local governments. This tendency probably affects interests in and knowledge of the entire risk and safety work of the municipalities. One consequence might easily be that certain problems fall between two stools. The fact that certain persons did not make any judgments in some questions, did not see any possibilities of prevention or did not choose any specific measures in order to prevent similar situations as described in the scenarios appears to be related to an outside perspective. Conclusions from the results are among others that existing intentions to improve the planning and risk management on the local level may run the risk of becoming idealistic expectations which are not realized in practice. Such changes cannot be done only through information and handbooks. Future work should focus factors controlling perspectives, organization factors and issues of co-ordination and leadership.


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