Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 1998 Annual Meeting

Regional Management of Accidents Risk Level: Strategy Based on Effective Feedbacks. V. G. Krymsky, D.Sc., Professor, Ufa State Aviation Technical, University (USATU), 12 K.Marx Str., Ufa, 450000, Bashkortostan, Russia, telephone +7(3472) 22-74-65, fax +7(3472) 23-52-53, e-mail kvg@conver.bashkiria.su; F. M. Akhmedjanov, Ph.D., Senior Researcher, USATU; I. I. Kovalenko - Ph.D., Associate Professor, USATU; A. S. Suslov, Ph.D., Chief of Extremal Situations Division, Institute for Applied Ecology Problems (Bashkortostan Republic); and A. R.Yunusov, Doctoral Student, USATU

The constructing of regional systems which aim to realize accidents risk level management is considered to be of the great importance for many industrialized countries. The large areas containing a lot of hazardous plants (HP) such as power stations (in particular nuclear ones), petrochemical and other enterprises, pipelines, buildings, dams, objects for human being provision become the permanent sources of possible emergencies appearance.

Bashkortostan Republic (one of the largest industrial regions inside Russia) is among the noted areas. HP located here caused some well-known accidents (for example, "Novosibirsk-Adler" train crash because of gas pipeline explosion in 1989). Water and air inadmissible pollutions initiated by petrochemical enterprises wastes are frequent phenomena in this area.

Today the accidents prevention and environmental protection activity in Bashkortostan Republic is regulated by Governmental Programme including risk management as one of the main parts. The authors of the present paper accumulated some experience in risk management system creation because they took part in the investigations according to the mentioned Programme. Their proposal concerns this closed-loop system general structure which is planned to be based on three kinds of feedbacks:

(i) internal feedback (it utilizes the special Russian institutions for the plants state observation and limitation such "Gosgortechnadzor", "Gossanepidnadzor", etc.; all the noted institutions must be informed of the current situation and fulfil the actions oriented towards risk indices reduction);

(ii) intermediate feedback (it is represented by the insurance system functioning with respect to insurance agencies investments into the plants operational security);

(iii) external feedback (it includes the subsystem of HP security declarations analysis mechanism, special HP regional register and the expert commission whose decisions become the foundations for governmental responses).

The authors consider all the feedbacks interaction in order to provide the stability of region development. The resulting strategy for accidents risk level management has been confirmed now by some normative documents in Bashkortostan Republic.


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