Quantitative Assessment of Efficacy of Social Policy. Konstantyn Atojev, Ph.D., Vasiliy Yanenko, Ph.D., and V'jacheslav Rykhtovsky, Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine 252022, 40, pr. akad. Glushkova, Kiev, Ukraine, telephone/fax 38 044 266 02 89, e-mail janenkov@janintas.kiev.UA, and janintas@carrier.kiev.ua
The mathematical models and software for estimation the risk of social shock in society (ERSSS), which may be as indicator of efficacy of government’s social policy, are elaborated. The cusp - universal deformation of theory of catastrophes (UDTC) lies in the base of minimal model of ERSSS. All parameters that are utilized for ERSSS may be subdivided on three groups (stability of social situation in society (SSSS), the load of social obligations on government (LSOG), reserves of social-economic system (RSES)). The values of LSOG and RSES are estimated accordingly by “fast” and “slow” groups of parameters. The first group includes following parameters: ratio between cost of a labor and its productivity, share of country’s income, fitting on 20% of poorest layers of the population. Their changing is connected with actions of society throw the appropriate legislation. The changing of second group (share of Gross National Income (GNI), corresponding to state expenditure and share of urban population) requires significantly more time and essential costs of material resources. Degree of proximity of system’s parameters to their critical (bifurcation) level is considered as the measure of risk of fall of SSSS. More complicated model is based on UDTC - butterfly. It allows increasing possibilities of modeling with the help of two additional groups of parameters. The first group is connected with economics: levels of GNI, material resources, investments in various fields of economical system, etc. The second group is connected with finance: levels of inflation, characteristics of credits and shares, etc. The modeling was carrying out on the base of social monitoring of Ukraine and Russia. The following tasks were examined: a) estimation of SSSS; b) investigation of optimal ways of normalization of SSSS; c) determination of economic, financial political, social parameter alterations, which decrease risk to desirable level with minimal expenditure.
Go to . . .
1998 SRA-Europe Table of Contents
1998 SRA-Europe Author Index
Main Abstracts Menu Page
RiskWorld Home Page