Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 1998 Annual Meeting

The Evaluation-Mediation Hypothesis: Does the Specification of Potential Side Effects Influence the Perceived Risk of a Medication? Dr. Torsten Reimer, Universitaet Potsdam, Institut für Psychologie, Abteilung Sozialpsychologie, Postfach 601553, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany, telephone +49.03.31/977.2845, fax +49.03.31/977.2795, e-mail reim@rz.uni-postdam.de

Starting from the assumptions of support theory, this project analyzed the extent to which the specification of potential side effects influences the perceived risk associated with a particular medication. Respondents were presented with an instruction leaflet for a medication which indicated (a) the overall probability that a side effect will occur or (b) the probability of occurrence of several specific side effects. Support theory predicts that the cognitive availability of potential side effects and therefore the perceived risk increases as a function of the specificity with which the side effects are presented. In contrast, the evaluation-mediation hypothesis predicts that a more detailed presentation of potential side effects enhances the perceived quality of the information leaflet and thereby leads to a reduction of perceived risk. Support for the evaluation-mediation hypothesis was found in a series of studies which included the editing hypothesis and the elaboration likelihood model as additional explanations: the more detailed the information about potential side effects, the lower the estimated risk of suffering a side effect on taking the medication. As predicted, the influence of presentation specificity on perceived risk was mediated almost exclusively by the perceived quality of the information leaflet. A current series of studies seeks to support the evaluation-mediation hypothesis in a completely different domain, the perceived risk of environmental pollution by motor vehicles.


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