Empirical Case Studies: Potentials of Global Risks: Technological Risks. Andreas Klinke, Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Württemberg, Industriestrasse 5, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany

This part deals with technological risks including routine emissions but are mainly focused on accidents or catastrophes that may reach global relevance. As case studies, three technological risks have been selected: nuclear energy; early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; and electromagnetic fields. The risks are characterized by the main evaluative criteria of our risk assessment which we have developed in the theoretical part. Each risk can be classified into one of the six risk types.

The risk of nuclear energy is not only limited to the employment of fissionable material in reactors, but also includes mining of uranium, transportation and final disposal. In the case of an accident or a catastrophe the extent of damage can reach global dimensions, affecting millions of people and great regions. In such cases radioactive materials or energy will be released so that problems of ubiquity, persistency and reversibility emerge. The probability for such an extent is very unlikely, it moves towards zero. Therefore, we have classified nuclear energy as a typical representative of the risk type "Sword of Damocles."

Early warning systems and NBC-weapons share many features with nuclear energy. The essential difference refers to the variables degree of uncertainty with respect to probability. Latest studies (HSFK, 1997) have investigated that the probability of an unauthorized or absolute unintentional nuclear attack is higher than expected but almost impossible to quantify. If such an event occurs, the extent of damage would reach global dimensions similar to a nuclear accident. Therefore early warning systems and NBC-weapons are classified as representatives of the risk type "Cyclops."

The risks of electromagnetic fields serve as a contrast to the other case studies. Most scientific researchers have come to the conclusion that electromagnetic fields may cause some effects but that these effects are so weak that they cannot be proved statistically - neither through animal experiments nor through epidemiological studies. The risk potential of electromagnetic fields depends largely on the subjective perception of the affected population to the extent that it even generates psychosomatic impacts. Therefore we have grouped the risks of electromagnetic fields in the risk type "Medusa" which is characterized by some degree of an uncertainty with respect to probability and rather low extent of overall damage, but high scores on the criteria ubiquity and potential of mobilization.

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