Empirical Case Studies: Potentials of Global Risks: Geophysical and Hydrological Risks. Heike Mumm, University of Konstanz, Institute for Biology, Jaco-Burckhardt-Strasse 25, 78464 Konstanz, Germany

Earthquakes and ensuing tsunamis, vulcano eruptions, strikes by extraterrrestrial objects like asteroids and meteoroids as well as floods are natural events. In contrast to a variety of other biological, climate or technological risks, their probabilities of occurrence generally cannot be influenced by man. However floods have a manmade component in that the probability of a damaging event is increased by alteration of watersheds and long-term climate change. Floods lead to the greatest loss of life through drowning, fatal injury, illness and famine while earthquakes are the most important geophysical risk. Increasing the certainty of assessment plays a major role in the management of the natural risks described. While all, earthquakes, tsunamis and floods and most volcano eruptions and meteor strikes have a local to regional impact, extreme events of the two latter can exert global influence e.g. when generated gases and particles reach the stratosphere and influence the weather world-wide. In these cases especially, long-term effects can be expected whereas the persistency is rather low in most other events. While ecosystems are usually adapted to natural risks, the loss of human life is not reversible and events involving this kind of damage are therefore most significant. The delay effect between the detection of a forthcoming event and subsequent damages is normally low, leaving only short time for precaution measures. As a consequence, long-term proactive strategies like reduction of vulnerability in affected regions and populations, improving early warning systems as well as information and education are fundamentals in risk management. In the case of most natural disasters effective emergency aid can help prevent consecutive damages e.g. epidemics. Despite the numerous cases of deaths involved in natural disasters and the commonly high interest of mass media, most events have only little mobilisation potential as natural risks are often perceived as inevitable.

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