Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 1998 Annual Meeting

Assessment of Natural and Manmade Disaster Management in Different Region of Russia. Dr. B. V. Potapov and Dr. V. A. Akimov, EMERCOM of Russia, Davidkovskaia Str., 7, Moskow, 121352, Russia, telephone/fax (7095) 443-24-85, e-mail kuzmin@quest.net.kiae.su

An approach to safety management of the population has been elaborated, the approach including the aspects as follows:

• operative (1-year-period) and long-term (5-10-yeas-period) risk prognosis within the whole country;
• allocation of budget on the basis of the prognostic data and planning of provisions to reduce risks and mitigate the disaster impact;
• comparative assessment of region (subregion) safety, their identification and ranging in compliance with potential hazard and determining the portion of budget appropriate for risk reduction as well as mitigation of the disaster impact in each region (subregion).

The results of comparative assessment of natural and manmade safety factors in Russian regions with application of a number of methods have been presented, these methods being as follows:

• a statistical one based on the analysis of statistical data on disasters and accidents in regions accumulated for some years and identification of safety criteria;
• a probabilistic one based on utilizing the mathematical models interrelating the emergency backgrounds with the probability of its occurrence;
• an expert one based on utilizing of expert assessment in combination with unprecise multitude theory.

Recommendations on allocation of budget for disaster prevention and mitigation of disaster impact in Russian regions, development of Federal aimed programs to improve the activity and living standards from safety viewpoint in the most hazardous regions have been discussed.

For comparative assessment of regions taking into account their potential safety, a complex criterion in the form of a linear combination of criteria characterizing regions according to the basic parameters of hazard can be used.

The reports contains the annual data on individual risk of death as a result of emergencies, proceeding from the death-rate statistics; the damage losses as well as the criteria of potential hazard (resulting from natural and manmade factors) in Russia.

The calculated relations discussed in the report can be used for substantiation of solutions applied for disaster management in the regions.