Liquefied Gas Pipelines Under Design in Russia: Risk Assessment. G. Odisharia, Prof., V. Safonov, D.T.Sc., S. Ovtçharov, D.T.Sc, and O. Andronova, D.Tsc., Research Institute of Natural Gases & Gas Technology; and A. Shvyryajev, D.ChSc., Lomonosov Moscow State University, 142717, Russia, Moskovskaya obl., Leninsky raion, p.Razvilka, VNIIGAS, telephone 7.095.355.96.72, fax 7.095.399.16.77
In connection with the acceptance of legislative standards for declaring safety of industrial objects in Russia the All Russian Gas Research Institute (VNIIGAS) and Moscow State University have performed a cycle of investigations in concern of liquefied gas pipelines risk analysis. The risk assessment is a main point of Safety Declaration on a base of which the decisions are made on necessity and proper sequence of technical measures for reducing risk. Also results of the risk assessment allow to arrive at a decision for insurance issues. There has been analysed the Western Siberia-Volga Region LPG pipeline design with capacity of 107 tonnes per year. The pipeline route is 3000 km of length and crosses the territories of 7 main administrative regions of Russia with différent mature levels of social infrastructure. As a result of the performed risk analysis the risk isolines have been drawn in vicinity of every locality being under the probable negative influence of potential ruptures of the pipeline. It has been shown that main dangers for the population are caused by LPG vapour cloud transfer and its further explosion. Vapour cloud transfer parameters were predicted with view of real possibilities of failure localisation with pumps shut-down and line valves closing. The predicted maximal length of vapour clouds under unfavourable weather conditions is about 3 km. In risk calculations the regional specifics was taken into account which influence the pipeline failure rate in the different regions. The analysis has shown the integral risk for the population located within 3 km zone alone the pipeline route (17000-18000 persons) is 0, 009 per year. About 2000 persons are at risk levels of 10-6 -10-5 per year, and 200 persons are at risk levels of (1-5). 10-5 per year. Ranging localities by mean individual risk levels has revealed that 95% of overall risk relates to 7 localities being closest to the pipeline. It has been shown there are a number of engineering and technological measures related to the pipeline construction stage to allow reducing risk to tolerable levels. These are changing the pipeline route, increasing the pipeline wall thickness and metal toughness, carrying some villages located just at the pipeline route.
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