Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis - Europe 1998 Annual Meeting

Assessing Voltage Collapse. Prof. R. Seydel, University at Ulm, Germany, Department of Numerical Analysis, University Ulm, D-89069 Ulm, telephone +49-731-50-23535, fax +49-731-50-23548, seydel@mathematik.uni-ulm.de

Voltage stability is most fundamental for our technological life. It is necessary to develop tools for assessing voltage stability. Voltage collapse points can be modeled by so-called turning points of the stationary state of special ordinary differential equations, or by Hopf bifurcations. Voltage stability is identified with the margin between the current operating point and the collapse point. A substantial part of assessing voltage stability then amounts to calculate turning points, which are special cases of bifurcation points.

The contribution briefly describes the turning point as a basic ingredient of deterministic risk theory. Then different ways to efficiently estimate the location of collapse points are discussed. All of the approaches are embedded into continuation methods. One class of approaches is based on test functions, another on curve fitting. The latter approach is the least expensive one.


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