Concept of the Russian Change-Over to Stable Development: From "Absolute" Safety to the "Acceptable" Risk and Risk Management. V. A. Akimov, Deputy Head for Sciences of the Russian Institute for Emergencies and Civil Defence of EMERCOM of Russia; I. I. Kuz’mine, Senior Scientific Research Specialist of the Russian Institute for Emergencies and Civil Defence of EMERCOM of Russia; and N. A. Makhutov, Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences
An attempt to analyze the scientific grounds of the Russian policy relating to the Russian change-over to the course of stable development has been made. The major attention has been concentrated on the role of methods used for assessing and managing risks and hazards typical of the modern conditions for the socio-economic development of Russia.
It has been demonstrated that before that USSR disintegration (Russia having been the part of the former USSR), the policy of ensuring the protection of the population, the environment and the socio-economic field from the internal and the external hazards created by natural and man-made disasters as well as by military threats has been principally oriented to achieving the "absolute" safety (ALARA Principle). Under the circumstances, in our country there were no valid incentives (at least, economic and legislative ones) for carrying out research involving quantitative assessment of risk created to the population and the environment by some kinds of hazard as well as for developing the appropriate provisions to be taken in advance to mitigate the impact of a hypothetical disaster.
In new, democratic Russia, since the moment of its formation in the early nineties, it has been realised in the Governmental circles that the policy of "absolute" safety which has seemed to be so attractive to many people, is not compatible with the internal regularities conditioning both the economic activities and features of socio-economic development of a new policy, i.e., "acceptable " risk policy, has been commenced. The policy is aimed at ensuring human and environmental safety. It is based on the methodologies for identification of the acceptable balance of potential hazards occurring as a result of some kind of activity and potential profits resulting from the some kind of activity, the social priorities and economic potentials of the people and society, their surroundings and ecological restrictions (ALARA Principle) are being taken into account.
The most important Governmental Document "The Concept of the Russian Federation Change-Over to Stable Development" (ratified by the Presidential Decree in 1996) has been analysed in the Report. This document can be considered to be the guidelines for the further development of Russia. The detailed study of the above document has demonstrated that the process of safety provision based on risk management is regarded as the mechanism governing the Russian change-over to stable development, the safety factors being regarded as "indicators" of stable development of the country. The results of investigations carried out by the authors in this field are presented.
Go to . . .