Dietary Exposure to Pesticides: Comparison of Empirical and Probability Distribution Estimates. D. Baugher, EXP Corporation, 660 Orchard Lane, Aspers, PA 17304
The report of the FIFRA Scientific Advisory Panel Meeting held 24-25 March 1998 discussed empirical and probability distribution functions (EDFs and PDFs) in estimating acute dietary exposure to pesticides. "of many PDFs can be derived and used directly....EDFs, used strictly, cannot yield unusual values that are rarer than the size of the data set and may be inadequately protective of populations..." We have compared 3 approaches to estimating dietary exposure: (1) EDFs of food consumption and EDFs of pesticide residues; (2) PDFs of food consumption and EDFs of residues; (3) PDFs of both. Food EDFs were derived from the 1994-1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals. Pesticide residue data were derived from field studies and the 1994 and 1995 Pesticide Data Program (for blended commodities only). PDFs were derived from the EDFs. The EDFxEDF analysis was done with the EXPedite System, Version 1.2, a PC-based Monte Carlo database system for the 1994-1996 CSFII. The other analyses were done with EXCEL spreadsheets and Monte Carlo add-ins. Three subpopulations historically at greatest risk were evaluated: females of childbearing age; non-nursing infants less than 1 year old; and, children 1-6 years old. The magnitudes of exposure and the stability of the estimates at selected percentiles are presented for minimal iterations through beyond-optimal iterations.
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