A Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Effect of Risk Communication on Consumer Purchasing Decisions. R. L. Beekman and L. Blake-Hedges, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics, Economic and Policy Analysis Branch, 401 M Street S.W., Washington DC 20460
Risk management policies are often designed to encourage, or require, consumption to shift from products associated with risks to human health or the environment toward purchases of less risky substitute products. Policy makers need to evaluate a risk communication campaign’s ability to effect that shift, so as to compare that approach with more traditional means of achieving the same goals. Recent research has focused on individual’s ability to correctly perceive the information presented through risk communication. This paper, on the other hand, focuses on the change in purchasing behavior resulting from an effective risk communication strategy (e.g., one that adequately conveys risk information to consumers). While consumers may correctly perceive the relevant risk information, they may not place significant value on those risks relative to other product attributes. As such, even an "effective" risk communication effort may not result in the desired consumption shift. We present a methodology used to predict the effect of risk communication on purchasing behavior. Specifically, the methodology estimates changes in market shares across alternative product categories. At present significant informational requirements, related to consumer preferences over risks and other product attributes, limit the applicability of this framework for applied policy analysis. Future research directed at reducing the informational requirements would be a valuable extension.
Work supported by Abt Associates, Inc. and Applied Decision Analysis, Inc. under EPA contract 68-D2-0175.
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