An Approach for Quantifying the Risk of Injury from Toys. C. Doran and T. Xu, ITS RAM, Oak Brook, IL
Systematic approaches to risk assessment are increasingly being recognized as potential tools in defining the critical factors affecting the safety of consumer products. This presentation discusses one such approach to the design of a probabilistic risk assessment for consumer products intended for use by children. The staff of ITS Risk Analysis & Management developed a quantitative risk model relating the parameters that can potentially lead to serious injury or death to children interacting with toys. The approach involved the incorporation of injury data, human factors assessments, child behavior studies, and engineering analyses to generate a scenario framework. Monte Carlo simulations methods were then applied to the framework to produce estimates of the negative consequences that may result with a given design, method of distribution, and quantity. These estimates can then benefit risk managers by allowing them to identify the critical factors influencing the risk of a product and to make better informed risk reduction decisions.
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