Assessing the Production of SE-Positive Eggs. E. D. Ebel and W. D. Schlosser, Ft. Collins, CO
This report describes a computer model which simulates the annual production of SE-positive eggs in the USA. This production module is the first stage of a farm-to-table quantitative risk assessment of the exposure of the human population to SE-positive eggs and the adverse medical outcomes which may occur as a result of this exposure.
The total number of egg-producing flocks is an input to this model. Flocks are then stratified by their size and SE infection status. SE-positive flocks are differentiated into ‘low prevalence SE-positive flocks’ and ‘high prevalence SE-positive flocks’ based on the frequency of SE-positive eggs. Molting is associated with an increased rate of SE-positive eggs within SE- positive flocks. Therefore, this model also stratifies SE-positive flocks by molt status. The production module calculates the number of SE-positive eggs produced annually for each of these categories. The number of SE-positive eggs marketed to shell egg processing & distribution and the number of SE-positive eggs marketed to liquid egg processing is also estimated. Through the incorporation of epidemiologically relevant variables, this production module may also be used to simulate the effects of mitigation strategies on the annual production of SE-positive eggs.
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