Applying Risk Assessment for Indicators of Sustainable Development. R. V. Kolluru, CH2M HILL, 99 Cherry Hill Road, Parsippany, New Jersey 07054
The relationship between risk assessment and sustainable development is a dynamic one, involving both the quality of life of the present population, and potential capacity of future generations. In risk assessment, we seek to identify the risks to exposed populations in a given situation (a set of conditions in a given time and space), or during the lifecycle of a person or a facility. On the other hand, sustainable development involves driving forces and trends over generations and interdependent subsystems. For example, we can estimate health risks to a population from the quality of ambient air and drinking water e.g. pollutant concentrations in air and water. However, air and water quality are symptomatic of broader driving forces related to population growth and density, material and energy consumption patterns including transportation, technology intensity, solid and fluid wastes generation per capita, and discharges to the environmental media (air, water, land). While the quantity and quality of water available for direct human use, for instance, is pivotal to human health and well-being, there are also competing demands from agriculture and industry; overuse and contamination will inevitably impact downstream ecosystems like wetlands and estuaries. Examples of linkages between health risks and sustainability are: trends in the proportion of groundwater and surface water supplies that meet water quality criteria; percent of days when a population is exposed to atmosphere with pollutant concentrations exceeding air quality guidelines; land use; area of contaminated land; and so on. The proposed paper will present a semi-quantitative framework for developing indicators and benchmarks of sustainable development based on risk assessment and management principles and "feed-forward" decision methodology. The concepts will be illustrated by New Jersey Sustainable State Project, and a scenario in a rapidly developing country.
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