Abstract of Meeting Paper

Society for Risk Analysis 1998 Annual Meeting

Characterization of the Relationship Between Salmonella Levels in Shell Eggs and Handling Scenarios. H. K. Latimer, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; L. A. Jaykus, Department of Food Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; R. A. Morales, Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Maryland, College Park, MD;  P. Cowen, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Crawford-Brown, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

Salmonella Enteritidis (S.E.) is one of the most frequent causes of foodborne disease outbreaks and has been identified as an emerging foodborne pathogen. Quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used to develop baseline risk levels for S.E. associated with the consumption of raw shell eggs. The prevalence of contamination, the level of S.E. consumed, and the dose-response relationship were identified as significant variables in characterizing this risk. Initial risk estimates ranges from a low of 7x10-6 to a high of 8x10-3 for consumption of a single raw egg and were highly dependent upon egg handling conditions. In this current study, previous work has been expanded by development of a Farm-to-Table model which considers the stepwise handling of shell eggs, including key events in production, processing, transportation, and storage. Using this format in conjunction with two mathematical expressions; the time for yolk membranes break down and the Gompertz equation, microbial growth modeling has been refined for better characterization of the level of S.E. consumed. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to elucidate the relationship between the level of S.E. in shell eggs, changes in shell egg handling, and the degree of risk reduction. Better characterization of the relationship between specific shell egg handling scenarios and the level of S.E. consumed will be addressed to provide valuable information to risk managers to reduce the risk of foodborne Salmonellosis.


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