The Estimation of Risks of Severe Technogenic Accidents Based Upon Probabilistic Theory of Extreme Events. A. V. Popov, A. A. Bykov, and V. Akimov, Russian Academy of Economics after G. V. Plekhanov, 21-1-43 Orekhovy Blvd., Moscow, Russia, 115563; and Russian Research Institute on the Problems of Civil Defence and Emergency Control under Russian Ministry for Emergencies, 7, Davydkovskaya, Moscow, Russia 121352
In the study is described a method to assessment of the likelihood of severe technogenic disasters. The method is based on computing of dynamics statistical sets of damages that are linked with any causes of accidents (equipment, spoilage, strike, etc.). It is suggested the technique of "step-by-step" elaboration of large technogenic disasters while the damages data are growing. Usage of this post-accident method will allow to reduce uncertainty in estimation of catastrophic events-events of low probability, but high severity.
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